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鮑卡斯接任美國(guó)駐華大使三大后果

Three takeaways from Baucus' selection as Ambassador to China

中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng) 2013-12-20 09:30

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鮑卡斯接任美國(guó)駐華大使三大后果

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With China increasingly demanding to be seen as an equal to the United States, the White House has selected the next steward of its most important, most complicated bilateral relationship. According to media reports, Max Baucus, the influential Democratic senator from Montana, is set to become the next US ambassador to China.

While the implications of Baucus' selection are still unclear, here are three potential consequences of a Baucus ambassadorship:

1. It could enable the White House to take more control of the US-China relationship:

In his new role as ambassador, Baucus will replace former Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, who will step down in early 2014 and who was preceded by former Utah Governor and presidential candidate John Huntsman. A respected Democratic voice, Baucus is not necessarily a lower profile pick than his predecessors, and he has already met with Chinese President Xi Jinping several times. Where he does differ, especially from Huntsman, is his near total lack of experience in security issues. "It's an interesting [pick] in the sense that security competition with China is heating up and he doesn't have much of a record" on security issues, said Dan Blumenthal, director of Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute. While Baucus will certainly get up to speed, he's probably less likely than his predecessors to interfere with the White House and the Pentagon on military or political issues.

2. It could improve Beijing's relationship with Congress:

Chinese leaders have always been more comfortable dealing with US presidents -- who have a job that's roughly analogous to their own -- than with members of Congress. "They don't really know what to make of Congress, because it's this cacophony of people with many of them influential on different things," said Patrick Chovanec, chief strategist with Silvercrest Asset Management, who formerly taught economics at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Baucus, who's been in the Senate for 35 years, could help smooth over concerns in Congress about Chinese investment in the United States and unfair trade practices against US companies in China. "Having someone who understands that side of the US government and is influential and has those connections," is probably a good thing for the economic side of the relationship, Chovanec said.

3. It's an uncontroversial and unsexy choice for China:

Trade is always an easier bilateral issue for Beijing to deal with than military and security matters or questions of human rights. An October 2010 press release from his Senate office titled "Baucus Presses Top Chinese Officials to Address Trade Concerns, Open Market to Montana Beef" was likely not an issue of concern for Chinese officials. Baucus is a soft-spoken Senate dealmaker who was instrumental in ushering President Obama's signature healthcare overhaul through Congress. An introvert rather than a show man, he is less likely to anger Beijing by building a personal relationship with the Chinese people -- which his predecessors made a point of doing. Photos of Locke flying to Beijing coach class, carrying his own luggage, and waiting in line at a Starbucks went viral in China, because of the contrast they highlighted with corrupt Chinese officials. Huntsman famously rode his motorcycle through the streets of Shanghai and would occasionally ride a bicycle to meetings at the Chinese foreign ministry. Baucus will probably keep a lower profile.

The news Wednesday night hit China's Internet as most of the country was waking up -- it's 13 hours ahead -- and Chinese news sites are so far just reporting the story without offering any additional commentary. The small number of Chinese netizens who have commented on the appointment have focused largely on Baucus' age. In China, the unofficial retirement age for top politicians is 70, and none of the members of China's Politburo Standing Committee, the seven-member body that rules the country, is over the age of 68.

"How has he not retired at 72?" wondered one user of Sina Weibo, China's Twitter. "Why don't they let him rest?" asked another Weibo user. "What will they do if he keels over?"

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中國(guó)日益要求和美國(guó)平起平坐,在這個(gè)形勢(shì)下,白宮提名下一任駐華大使以處理最重要、最復(fù)雜的雙邊關(guān)系——中美關(guān)系。媒體報(bào)道稱(chēng)馬克斯·鮑卡斯(Max Baucus)將會(huì)成為下一任駐華大使。鮑卡斯來(lái)自來(lái)自蒙大拿州,是一名有影響力的民主黨參議員。

雖然提名鮑卡斯出任駐華大使的影響尚未可知,但是下文列出了鮑卡斯接任駐華大使后三個(gè)可能的好處。

1. 白宮對(duì)中美關(guān)系將擁有更多控制權(quán)

駱家輝(Gary Locke)接替前猶他州州長(zhǎng)、總統(tǒng)候選人喬恩·亨茨曼(John Huntsman,中文名為洪博培)出任駐華大使至今,他將于2014年年初離任,屆時(shí)鮑卡斯將接替前商務(wù)部長(zhǎng)駱家輝出任駐華大使。鮑卡斯是一名受人尊敬的民主黨要員,和前幾任駐華大使相比,他并不是默默無(wú)聞,他已經(jīng)多次會(huì)見(jiàn)中國(guó)國(guó)家主席習(xí)近平;鮑卡斯真正不同于前幾任駐華大使,尤其是亨茨曼的地方在于,他幾乎完全沒(méi)有處理安全問(wèn)題的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。美國(guó)企業(yè)研究所亞洲研究(Asian studies at the American Enterprise Institute)主管丹·布盧門(mén)撒爾(Dan Blumenthal)稱(chēng)“提名鮑卡斯是個(gè)有趣的(選擇),畢竟中美安全競(jìng)賽愈演愈烈,而鮑卡斯在安全問(wèn)題上并沒(méi)有什么經(jīng)驗(yàn)”。雖然鮑卡斯肯定會(huì)惡補(bǔ)安全事務(wù),但是他很有可能不會(huì)像前幾任那樣經(jīng)常干預(yù)白宮和五角大樓對(duì)軍事和政治問(wèn)題的處理。

2. 北京與美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的關(guān)系會(huì)有所改善

中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人和美國(guó)總統(tǒng)打交道總是比和國(guó)會(huì)更自在,因?yàn)槊绹?guó)總統(tǒng)的職能和他們的差不多。“中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人真的不知道該怎么看待國(guó)會(huì),因?yàn)閲?guó)會(huì)內(nèi)部充滿分歧,很多人能夠影響著不同的事件。”帕特里克·邱伐內(nèi)克(Patrick Chovanec,中文名為程致宇)說(shuō)道,他是Silvercrest資產(chǎn)管理集團(tuán)首席戰(zhàn)略官,曾在北京清華大學(xué)教經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)。鮑卡斯擔(dān)任參議院長(zhǎng)達(dá)35年,他可以減輕國(guó)會(huì)對(duì)中國(guó)在美投資和對(duì)中國(guó)境內(nèi)針對(duì)美國(guó)公司的不公平貿(mào)易行為的擔(dān)憂。邱伐內(nèi)克稱(chēng)“找個(gè)了解國(guó)會(huì),并且在國(guó)會(huì)具備影響力、人脈廣泛的人當(dāng)駐華大使”,很有可能促進(jìn)中美關(guān)系經(jīng)濟(jì)層面的發(fā)展。

3. 中國(guó)對(duì)此或無(wú)爭(zhēng)議

相比軍事安全、人權(quán)問(wèn)題,北京處理貿(mào)易這個(gè)雙邊問(wèn)題時(shí)總是更為得心應(yīng)手。2012年10月鮑卡斯參議院辦公室發(fā)布題為《鮑卡斯敦促中國(guó)高官處理貿(mào)易問(wèn)題,開(kāi)放市場(chǎng)接納蒙大拿州牛肉》的新聞稿,這一事件并未引起中國(guó)官員的不安。鮑卡斯善于言辭,一直致力于促進(jìn)參議院達(dá)成協(xié)議,奧巴馬總統(tǒng)標(biāo)志性醫(yī)改措施得以在國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò),他功不可沒(méi)。鮑卡斯沉穩(wěn)內(nèi)斂,不喜出風(fēng)頭,他如果像前幾任駐華大使強(qiáng)調(diào)的那樣,和中國(guó)人民建立親切關(guān)系,北京將會(huì)更樂(lè)于接受他。駱家輝坐經(jīng)濟(jì)艙、手提行李和在星巴克排隊(duì)照片在中國(guó)走紅,是因?yàn)樗湍承└瘮〉闹袊?guó)官員形成了鮮明的對(duì)比。眾所周知,洪博培摩托車(chē)穿梭于上海的街道,有時(shí)還會(huì)騎自行車(chē)去中國(guó)外交部開(kāi)會(huì)。鮑卡斯可能會(huì)更低調(diào)些。

鮑卡斯或?qū)⒊鋈务v華大使的新聞?dòng)?2月18日,即13小時(shí)前出現(xiàn)在中國(guó)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上,當(dāng)時(shí)中國(guó)大部分地區(qū)的人剛剛起床,而中國(guó)新聞網(wǎng)站到目前為止除了報(bào)道這一事件外并未多加評(píng)論。那些為數(shù)不多評(píng)論此事的網(wǎng)民關(guān)注的大多是鮑卡斯的年齡。中國(guó)高官非官方的退休年齡為70歲,中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨中央政治局常務(wù)委員會(huì)七名常委的年齡都未超過(guò)68歲。

“鮑卡斯都72歲了怎么還沒(méi)退休?”一名新浪微博用戶說(shuō)道。“為什么不讓他退休呢?”另一名微博用戶問(wèn)道,“要是他倒下了怎么辦?”

(譯者 uamouse 編輯 丹妮)

 

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